My Very Final 2010 Mock Draft

Finally, the day is here. With that, I'm submitting my final (trade-free) mock of the first round. I don't doubt there will be a few trades that will throw off the works on this, but so be it.

(1) St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford (QB)
(2) Detroit Lions - Ndamukung Suh (DT)
(3) Tampa Bay Bucs - Gerald McCoy (DT)
(4) Washington Redskins - Russell Okung (OT)
(5) KC Chiefs - Trent Williams (OT)
(6) Seattle Seahawks - Eric Berry (S)
(7) Cleveland Browns - Derek Morgan (DE) *Expect Trade action on this Pick
(8) Oakland Raiders - Anthony Davis (OT)
(9) Buffalo Bills - Dan Williams (NT)
(10) Jacksonville - Rolando McClain (LB) *Expect Trade action on this Pick
(11) Denver Broncos - Dez Bryant (WR)
(12) Miami Dolphins - Earl Thomas (S)
(13) San Francisco - CJ Spiller (RB)
(14) Seattle Seahawks - Brian Bulaga (OT)
(15) NY Giants - Mike Iupati (G)
(16) Tennessee Titans - Jason Pierre-Paul (DE)
(17) San Francisco - Jimmy Clausen (QB)
(18) Pittsburgh Steelers - Maurkice Pouncey (C)
(19) Atlanta Falcons - Brandon Graham (DE)
(20) Houston Texans - Joe Haden (CB) *Possible Trade Spot
(21) Cincinnati Bengals - Jermaine Gresham (TE)
(22) New England Patriots - Sergio Kindle (LB)
(23) Green Bay Packers - Kyle Wilson (CB)
(24) Philadelphia Eagles - Charles Brown (OT) *Possible Trade Spot
(25) Baltimore Ravens - Demaryius Thomas (WR)
(26) Arizona Cardinals - Jerry Hughes (LB)
(27) Dallas Cowboys - Nate Allen (S)
(28) San Diego Chargers - Ryan Matthews (RB)
(29) NY Jets - Linval Joseph (DE) *Possible Trade Spot
(30) Minnesota Vikings - Kareem Jackson (CB)
(31) Indianapolis Colts - Brian Price (DT)
(32) New Orleans Saints - Sean Weatherspoon (LB)

Trends I'm thinking we'll see:

• Corners going unusually late in the first round.
  
• Some of the "safer" picks dropping a little (Morgan, Bulaga, Haden)
• Look for teams to try to trade up to the mid teens to get a shot at Spiller, Haden, Clausen, or Pierre-Paul. Maybe something like Minnesota trading it's first rounder and a 2nd to get Clausen at 15.
  
• I don't believe the hype of Colt McCoy or Tebow in the first round. I just can't see why a team would do that when they can get a starter late in the first. This is a great draft, overall.
• The best spots to be are in the range of 10-16. There could be guys like Bryant, Spiller, Morgan, Haden, JPP and one of the top OTs left who would normally be top 8 picks. And there should be some serious pushes for teams to get up into that range.
  

Some Easy Trades That Sadly, Won't Happen

Here's a list of some snappy trades I'd love to see happen in the next day or so. Most of these are tied to draft picks, so it's easiest this time of year. Unfortunately, most teams don't trade as much as they should, since that involves at least 1 iote of risk, and they're more comfortable being mediocre and avoiding any potential blame. Think of these as the trades that all end up with both teams better in the long and short terms, and that seem pretty equitable.


Jacksonville Trades First Round Pick #10 for Philadelphia's First Round Pick (#24) and Second Rounder (from Washington, #37).
Why?
Philadelphia either can take Safety Earl Thomas or even trade up more to get Eric Berry. Safety is their biggest need by far and they can get one of the top 2 guys to start this year. Jacksonville is on the fast track to irrelevant, and they can turn one pick into two. They have multiple needs and can now get a solid linebacker (say, Weatherspoon) and a safety like Mays in Round 2.

Buffalo Trades Second Round Pick (#41) to Baltimore for Jared Gaither (OT).
Why?
This allows Baltimore to get good value for a player they don't really need right now with the development of Michael Oher. They can get one of the better wideouts if they don't get one in round one, or a tight end to replace Heap. Buffalo has a huge need for OL help and in Gaither, they fill the toughest position to find in one swoop. This also allows them to go any number of directions with their first rounder (Dan Williams would be especially helpful). I'd be a strong advocate of Kansas City making this trade with Baltimore, for basically a similar package, probably pick #36. Baltimore might have to toss in an extra 5th Rounder to make the #36 happen, or KC a 5th round extra (they have 3) if it was the 50th pick.

Carolina Trades DeAngelo Williams (RB) to New England for 2nd Round Pick (#53 overall).
Why?
Williams still has some mileage left on the tires, and the Pats can plug him right into the offense to give them a 3-down back with game-changing talent. Conversely, Carolina's basically in rebuilding mode and already has an excellent back in Jonathan Stewart. They need talent all over the roster, and they can turn Williams into an immediate starter elsewhere.

NY Giants Trade Osi Umenyiora to Cincinnati for 3rd Round Pick (#84):
Why?
Cincy needs to add more talent to their defensive front 7, and Osi can be a top notch pass rusher. He played every game last year, so he looks to be healthy, and they still have a 3rd Round pick left. The strength of the AFC is now in the passing units (Indy, NE, Miami, Pitt, poss. Baltimore, San Diego, potentially the Jets if Sanchez improves), so they can't get stuck with a crappy pass rush. NY is actively shopping Osi since he's apparently unhappy about the situation, and here they can get a solid pick to help replace or fill a different spot. Some people are talking about NY getting a second round pick for him, but I have a hard time seeing it since he's already 28 and has a little bit of an injury history.


Washington Trades Albert Haynesworth to New Orleans for a 2nd Round Pick (#64) and either 2010 3rd Round Pick (#95) or 2011 2nd Round Pick (Prob. about #60. )
Why?
OK, I admit that this one's pretty far-fetched. But doesn't it makes sense? Haynesworth doesn't really fit with the Redskins 3-4 front and has been publicly unhappy. Send him to New Orleans and the Saints fill their biggest need, a defensive tackle to stop the run, and Washington can recoup much of what they've lost. New Orleans can make the numbers work if they cut Charles Grant (which they've discussed anyways a lot) and either let Bush's monster salary leave or redo it. Redskins can take an actual 3-4 DE and then get more help in this draft, plus dump some salary on a guy they don't want. I love this trade, even though it won't happen. Haynesworth's value isn't nearly what it was a year ago, since it's clear he needs to be a 4-3 DT and makes a ton of money. And remember, Brandon Marshall was only swapped for a pair of 2nd Rounders, so it's not far from what they got.

Seattle Trades 4th Rounder (#127) to Washington for Andre Carter.
Why?
Seattle can get a productive 4-3 DE who can fill a starting position for about 3 years, and mentor their young defenders. The Redskins can get a developmental player for the price of an aging DE who didn't really fit in their 3-4 look.

This Just In: The Conservatives Are Still A Pack of Scumbag Liars

This is a pretty great video I came across the other day. Basically, Bill O'Reilly had Tom Coburn (R-OK) on his show lately and tried to claim that Fox News had been unfairly targeted by Coburn for misrepresenting the issues on health care, specifically the bogus claim that you're going to jail if you don't buy health insurance. O'Reilly proudly proclaims that despite their strident efforts, they could find no instances where anyone on Fox discussed going to jail. When Coburn refutes this, O'Reilly shouts louder and laughs. Fortunately, the rest of the universe lives in reality and the video is pretty great in hammering home the fact that this was a talking point on the network for about 2 weeks straight.

Well, damn, either Bill was lying or he just has the most amazingly bad research team in the history of both research and teams.

The Link

(Note: Video is about halfway down the page)

We Only Thought We Knew the Tea Party. Oh Wait, We Did After All.

There has been some discussion recently about a NY Times poll outlining the Tea Party crowd and how a different picture of them has come to light. They're not just angry old white guys, we're now hearing, it's much more of a reflection of the populace at large than that wacky leftist media has claimed. They're more educated and wealthier than we thought, as the argument goes. What we're supposed to do with this info is a little unclear, although my interpretation is that I'm supposed to be more sympathetic or respectful than before, because they're not just the yahoos spitting on Congressmen or flying planes into IRS offices.

But here's the funny thing: I actually come away from the polling data with a lower regard for that crew, because now it's just exposing these people as even more self-serving and arrogant than previously suspected. At least in the past, we could dismiss the crowd as being poor, uneducated, and struggling to find a place in modern society, but now it's even more clear that the majority of these people are doing just fine. Not only that, but they're happy to let the other people do all the hard work at these rallies while they sit at home and pat each other on the back for their patriotism.

Some of it we knew already, basically that it's 60% male and about 90% white. The arrogance is amazing, in that somehow 84% of these people think that most people agree with what they're doing. If that's the case, why is it that less than 20% actually do? The part I find most troubling is that while 92% believe the country is "headed the wrong direction," 78% of the Tea Party respondents described their economic situation as very good or fairly good. So basically these people are fine economically yet see the government as destroying America. OK then.

The other thing that comes up has to do with who they see as being the beneficiaries of all this Obama Socialism (92% claiming he's pushing Socialism), specifically the poor (56%) and minorities. In the eyes of this crowd, he's too focused on the problems of black people (52%) and over a quarter believe his policies are specifically intended to benefit blacks over whites. But of course, this all assumes people tell the truth, which is tough to be completely sure of on a poll like this. To be honest, I'm dubious of the education levels and income claimed by this crowd, but that's just me. I have a hard time buying that 75% of the Tea Party is over 44 years old, but almost 2/3 claim that neither they nor a family member are covered by Medicare.

We hear all these complaints about the deficit, and the reality is that every Conservative banging the drum on how Democrats raise the debt is absolute crap. It just is. Can you name the 5 Presidents since 1960 who left office with a smaller debt than when they came in? Try Clinton, Carter, Nixon, LBJ, and Kennedy. Oh, it gets better. The 3 Presidents with the highest rates of job creation since 1960? Clinton, Carter, and Johnson.

Yet where were all these principled fiscal conservatives during the 8 years of Bush deficits? We hear every one of these people describe the glory days of the Reagan America where he cut spending and we all lived happily in a state of economic responsiblity. And while this makes for great storytelling, it's just flat wrong. They always seem to forget the fact that Reagan drove the deficit from 32% of GDP to 53% of GDP. This isn't some kind of quirky numbers game, it's just a fact.

So what are we left with? A lot of aging white people hellbent on getting what they can but deathly opposed to paying for things. Everybody loves dead Presidents for reasons completely at odds with reality, and dislikes the current one for ones similarly made up in right-wing imaginations. Everyone's screwing them but they're still doing just fine, even though no one knows why. The evil President is trying to Socialize everything but the tax burden is okay and 62% say Medicare and Social Security (the 2 most Socialist programs on the books) are good plans that are worth the money.

Well, at least now we've cleared everything up. In the words of the imitable Dennis Green, "they were who we thought they were"-- deluded and self-serving.

What's in Your Easter Basket? My NFL Mock Draft (Part 2)

Part 2, hopefully, will be a little shorter. Great apologies on the delay.

(17) San Francisco 49ers - Jimmy Clausen
While the 49ers don't desperately need a QB, I can't imagine anyone really thinks Alex Smith is going to get them close to the playoffs either this year or in the future. The biggest question is whether Clausen would be available, but as we've seen, there just aren't that many teams who can afford spending a first rounder on a QB (STL, BUF, maybe WAS and OAK) with all the other needs they have. The 49ers would likely take Earl Thomas if Clausen's not there.

(18) Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike Iuapati
Iupati's a guy who will need some seasoning at the pro level, but he's got a ton of potential and the Steelers need to get bigger and tougher in their offensive line.

(19) Atlanta Falcons - Sergio Kindle - DE
They'd love to get a shot at Graham since they can't get any pass rush as things stand. I like Kindle here because he can either end up as a pass rusher from the DE or OLB spot.

(20) Houston Texans - Earl Thomas - SS
They need a lot of help in the defensive backfield. I was torn between Thomas and Kyle Wilson form Boise State, but in the end I figured they'd like the local kid a little better. Don't mess with Texas, or some reasoning like that.

(21) Cincinnati Bengals - Dez Bryant - WR
Maybe it's just because I want to see what happens, maybe it's because Cincy doesn't care what's on your rap sheet, and maybe because it's a fanstastic matchup of prospect, value, and need. I lovd Bryant here in this situation, and he really can help the Bengals a ton.

(22) NE Patriots - Jared Odrick -DE
I've really gone back and forth on this pick. My final stance is that the order they'd like to get is Pierre-Paul, Jared Odrick, Graham, Jerry Hughes. The biggest question on Odrick is whether he can make the switch from DT in the 4-3 at Penn State to the 3-4 DE he'd be for the Pats. He has the size and seems more like the 3-4 type anyways, so it would probably work fine. They need a long term replacement for Seymour, and he seems to fit the bill. The Pats can probably wait a little and get a 2nd rounder to play the OLB spot, maybe a guy like Ricky Sapp or Hughes if he drops to 44. I actually could see NE trading either up to get a guy like Pierre-Paul if he drops to somewhere near 11 at Denver, or also if they dropped and took one of these guys closer to 27. I just don't think they're real excited to get the OLBs who are under 6'2".

(23) Green Bay Packers - Kareem Jackson - CB

(24) Philadelphia - Taylor Mays - S
While I'm not a huge Mays fan, he does provide some elements Philly can use. They need safety help and even if he's mostly stays in the box, that's a huge help in the NFC East. The main knock on him is that he can't turn and run like you'd want to see in a safety, which is concering since he's the last line of defense. He can probably turn into a Rodney Harrison type, and be focused on run support and covering tight ends like Witten and Cooley.

(25) Baltimore Ravens - Demaryius Thomas -WR
I love Thomas for the Ravens, since he can be a big play receiver down the road, and provide at least a threat right now. I'm not a big fan of the TE option here, since you can find someone in the 2nd who can do what they need.

(26) Arizona Cardinals - Anthony Davis - OT
Davis, despite the concerns over his heart, is the best talent left at this point and fills a position of need. I doubt they'll reach to get a linebacker when you can find those guys in the middle rounds.

(27) Dallas Cowboys - Nate Allen - FS
They'd probably grab David if he was available, but it's a pretty iffy proposition that he would be.

(28) San Diego - Ryan Matthews - RB
For a team with a fair amount of talent, they have some serious gaps. Both lines are pretty shaky and the running back situation is a mess. Matthews gives them a legit running back with power to pair with Sproles. Some people might argue Terrence Cody here, but the fact that he probably is only a 2-down guy and may eat himself out of the league in 2 years both are major red flags.

(29) NY Jets - Arrelious Benn - WR
Probably looking to the offensive side of the ball, they'd really help Sanchez a ton getting a decent wideout.

(30) Minnesota Vikings - Devin McCourty - CB
If Clausen dropped this far they'd grab him. They might actually move up a bit if he started to get near 20. As it is, they need to start adding young players to the defense. If you're a contender in the NFC, you've got to be able to defend the pass, so the pick should be a corner. Probably McCourty or Patrick Robinson, depending on who they like better.

(31) Indy - Brian Price - DT
They need help on both fronts. Likely the better pick here is a thick DT. Price seems to fit well as a one-gap defender. They could also grab an OL if someone good were to be available, but there's a pretty marked dropoff after Iupati and Davis.

(32) New Orleans - Sean Weatherspoon - LB
Good fit for the Saints, who need help after Scott Fujita left town as a free agent.

What's in Your Easter Basket? My NFL Mock Draft (Part 1)

Spring time is a great thing. Birds, flowers, warm weather, and most of all, the NFL Draft. It's 3 weeks off and we're really starting to see things forming into a model that makes sense (sort of). I realize this is the type of stuff that's pretty hit or miss interest-wise, but I eat this stuff up so I'm plunging in with both feet. I'll have notes on some picks, but maybe not all, since it's going to get mad long fast doing that. And so it starts...

(1) St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB
Really, this is the only reasonable thing to do. Bradford is a big-time QB and they need to finally jump on a guy to be the face of the franchise. There were some concerns over the shoulder injury, but it appears to be fine and he looked great at the pro day, especially after adding some much needed muscle mass.

(2) Detroit Lions - Ndamakung Suh - DT
(3) Tampa Bay Bucs - Gerald McCoy - DT
Both teams desperately need help up front and these two are hands down the top defensive prospects on the board. They're different in that Suh's more a 2-gap power guy (think Richard Seymour) while McCoy is more the quicker guy trying to shoot gaps (think Warren Sapp/John Randall). I like Suh more than McCoy, and I think he immediately becomes an upper-echelon guy right away. He's the type to make all the football junkies all swoony this time of year.

(4) Washington Redskins - Russell Okung - OT
Here's where things get hazy. The Redskins are more than likely weighing between Okung and Jimmy Clausen, but I can't see why they take a QB this high based on their needs. For all the weaknesses on the Redskins, Jason Campbell isn't near the biggest, and their line is in shambles after Chris Samuels retired. Right now they're basically screwed at the LT position, and they need to address it ASAP to improve overall.

(5) KC Chiefs - Dan Williams - DT/DE
Nobody's hoping the Redskins take Clausen more than the Chiefs, because they'd jump on Okung in a heartbeat. Problem is, when he's gone there's a big drop in the players they'd be excited to have. There have been rumors about them going for Eric Berry, the Tennessee safety, but let's get something clear: safeties are always a bad pick in the top 10. They're just too injury prone and too easy to replace to spend a high pick and all the money that goes with it. That's why I like Williams here. He's a big dude, and can play either at DE or NT in the Kansas City 3-4. They need big time defenders wherever they can get them, and the other OTs are a big step down from Okung. Also, consider that Pioli came through the Belichick/Parcells lineage and is going to be predisposed to taking those big guys that you can't just find at the 7-11.

(6) Seattle - Trent Williams - OT
Seattle doesn't necessarily have the huge need at a single position, but they have a lot of places where they're running out a fringe-starter (namely OT, DE, DT, and CB). This might actually be a worse situation, because they'll need to upgrade damn near everyone and won't pick this high normally. Williams gives them a good solid OT who they can try to use as a replacement for Walter Jones.

(7) Cleveland - Eric Berry - Safety
The real tragedy here is that Holmgren is overseeing the draft, so we won't get to see this pick get traded to the Jets for Mike Devito, a 4th Round Pick, and 2 dozen glazed donuts. Since they need talent everywhere, they'll probably just take Berry, the guy all the TV crews will be calling the "best available player." None of the other top guys fit a need as much since they traded for Sheldon Brown at corner. The other issue is that the one position they're ok with is OT, and that's where they'd need some guys. I don't like teams that are crappy taking risky guys, so I'd likely rule out Jason Pierre-Paul or Dez Bryant. Side note: This is a 4-12 team in the making. I hate the Browns.

(8) Oakland Raiders - Joe Haden- CB
Odd team here to figure. They'll do anything, even if it makes no sense, and they just don't care. My guess is that if Trent Williams were here, they'd take him. There's a chance they'll take Bruce Campbell, the OT from Maryland, since he was great at the combine and looks like a professional wrestler. Problem is, while he was at Maryland, nobody thought he was any good. He didn't get a single all-conference vote, which is a pretty big indictment in a mediocre conference. My guess is that they'll be a little gunshy on Bulaga, since the last OT from Iowa (Robert Gallery) was somewhat a bust. The McNabb situation creates some uncertainty, if he goes to Oakland, they'll need corners in a big way. But for right now, we'll guess they take the top CB in the draft and really create a good situation for themselves in pass defense.

(9) Buffalo Bills - Brian Bulaga - OT
I really like Bulaga here, although maybe it's just because he's a thick white guy who would fit in on wing night up in Buffalo. That and the Buffalo O Line is abysmal.

(10) Jacksonville Jaguars - Rolando McClain - LB
For chrissakes I hope they don't take Tim Tebow here. This team needs a lot of help, and they're an MJD hamstring pull from being 3-13. In McClain they can drop in a guy who can be the key playmaker for the next 8 years and fill in a big need. Part of me would love to see them take a guy like Dez Bryant, but his act and baggage won't fly up in that area. If Joe Haden fell here I think they'd have to consider him.

(11) Denver Broncos - Jason Pierre-Paul - LB
Denver's in a position where they need to figure out their own house before they try add new guys. If they plan on trading Brandon Marshall, they'll probably need to add Bryant. If they don't see Orton or Brady Quinn as the long term QB, maybe it's Clausen. They'll know what's up, even though it's tough for the public. If McClain was available, I think he'd be the pick. As it is, I like Pierre-Paul here as a developmental pass rusher for the 3-4.

(12) Miami - Brandon Graham -LB
I would have considered Bryant here, but it sounds like he completely effed up his workout and forgot his cleats. Troubling move for a guy with more character flaws than Don Draper. They'd love to get Dan Williams if available, but I have some doubts about that possibility. They'd likely jump at a trade to move down if someone wanted to come up and get Clausen or Bryant. Right now, they'll need a pass rusher and I like them to grab Brandon Graham, the high-production rusher for the 3-4, although I wouldn't be surprised to see them get Earl Thomas.

(13) San Francisco - CJ Spiller - RB

(14) Seattle - Derek Morgan - DE

(15) NY Giants - Maurkice Pouncey - C/G
They'd love a shot at McClain if he was available. Another team who could absolutely try to trade back a few spots to get some play. Probably a good time to get a serious upgrade for the OL, and Pouncey gives them flexibility to play either center of guard.

(16) Tennesee Titans - Carlos Dunlap - DE
Dunlap's fallen out of favor a little lately, and there are some concerns about character and work ethic. But that being said, the guy's a great size for the position and was a major contributor for the top franchise in the NCAA. Tennessee needs a ton of help in the front 7, and they'll remember the success they had with Jevon Kearse.