Week 11 (AKA Pats/Colts and Other Less Important Stuff)

Pats v. Colts:
And here we are, the yearly installation of what has become the most historically significant rivalry since Bird-Magic. Brady's Pats and Manning's Colts stand as the two top 3 franchises of the last 15 years (with Pittsburgh), with Brady and Manning inarguably the top two players of that era.

For this week, New England seems to have the overall better squad and is well-served by a cold-weather Foxboro afternoon. The Pats should be able to win the up front battles, both on offense and defense, setting up a better chance to succeed in the passing games. Look for the Pats to try to pound the undersized Colt defense with Mankins, Light, a combination of Crumpler and Gronkowski. By hammering consistently with Green-Ellis, the play action should be effective. Brady's pass protection has been excellent lately, and it should continue--sealing the deal with short and intermediate routes.

The Colts have little choice but to try to spread the Pats out on defense, and go after the weak links in pass coverage. They're going to put as much pressure as possible on Kyle Arrington and James Sanders, since they're both liabilities in coverage. Wayne will get his, even though the Pats will try to key on him and force the secondary receivers to make plays. Look for Pat Chung to lock down the tight end Tamme and raise hell in the run game. Also, we'll probably see more Gary Guyton this week in place of Spikes since he's faster and much better in coverage.
Pats, 27-20

San Diego v. Denver:
Does anyone know whether Denver's not crappy? Hmm...I think not. I'm guessing this week will look a lot more like the Oakland 59-14 loss than last week's bizarre win over KC. San Diego looks tough, albeit flawed.

The Broncos really don't have an answer for San Diego's pass game, even though Matthews looks like kind of a stiff. He'll get better, but probably not in 2010. Even if Denver plays nickel the entire game, they can't get any pressure and the coverage will inevitably break down. The Bronco offense is actually very similar to San Diego's but the Charger defense is still a few steps better.
Chargers, 30-16

Oakland v. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh's injuries have really killed them lately. Their offensive line is in shambles, and their front 3 in the 3-4 have taken major hits with Aaron Smith and Keisel missing time. In a normal, healthy universe, this game, at Pittsburgh, should be about a 24-13 Steeler win. But...

...the Steelers aren't healthy and the Raiders are a team well-suited to take them on. The Raider front 7 is a physical, talented unit that is going to give the Steeler offense a ton of trouble. Seymour should have a monster game--7 tackles, 2-3 sacks. On the other hand, the Raider offense is ok, but probably not good enough up front to really cause major problems. And the passing game won't see much success. If McFadden can have some success, they could make some plays with a loosened up front 7. It's going to be a close one, but I like the Steeler defense just a little more.
Steelers, 16-13.

NYG v. Philadelphia:
This game is obviously going to be determined by the ability of the Giant front 7 to control Vick. If they can force Vick to stay in the pocket and throw with pressure, the Giants can probably pull it out. If Vick is able to move and make plays, Philly wins by 10 points. The Giants need to win this game with their offense--grind it out and keep the Eagle offense off the field. Philly's defense is more opportunistic than it is really a shut-down unit, so the Giants should be able to put up points if they can avoid turnovers.

We can't put too much into the Redskins game last week. Washington flat out quit early and is a terrible match trying to cover a fast team. The Giants have to commit a constant double to DeSean Jackson and force Vick to read progressions through the other receivers. And, they have to--HAVE TO--wrap up and make tackles when they can. Almost every big play against the Redskins last week involved a broken sloppy tackle by a broken sloppy team. Another thing to watch out for--the Vick injury potential. These games against big aggressive defenses are the types where he could take a hard hit and miss some time.
Eagles, 27-24

Week 9 NFL Picks

Week 9 NFL Picks:

New England at Cleveland:
The Pats are playing basically like a better version of their 2001-2002 Super Bowl club (Note: This isn't to say they're a Super Bowl team in the making, because that first Super Bowl was a crazy run with multiple upsets). Safe, extremely efficient, but able to make big plays a handful of times each game. The defense has improved immensely from the start of the year, and they look like they have rookie difference makers in Cunningham and McCourty.

In this matchup with Cleveland, the Pats should be able to load up against the run and force the Cleveland receivers to make plays on their own. Problem is, the Brown receivers can't make plays and the QB has NEVER seen the kinds of zone looks Belichick will put out there. The Pats offense will be able to grind out some points, and probably break a big pass with Hernandez or Tate. Probably not a ton of points, since New England won't play a risky offensive scheme.
Pats, 27-13

Miami at Baltimore
I'm really not a big Miami fan. That being said, Miami should be able to create some problems with the pass game in the same way that they always have given the Jets problems. Baltimore's problem is going to be Marshall making big plays on the crappy Raven DBs and Bess converting on 3rd Downs. I'd be surprised if Miami ran for more than 75 yards.

But Baltimore is going to score, since the Dolphins have a pretty good pass rush and corner in Vontae Davis. Baltimore's about a 5-6 point favorite. I like Baltimore to win, but not to cover.
Ravens, 20-16

Chargers v. Texans
How is this not a shootout, I first thought. But here's the thing: the Charger D is better than you think. And has anyone confirmed that the Texans have any heart? No evidence as of yet. Even at home, I like the Bolts. Big day for Rivers against a crappy Houston defense.
Chargers, 27-20

Giants at Seahawks
Are the Seahawks actually good? Hard to tell, since their wins are a little hollow-looking. I don't see it, and losing big to Oakland doesn't help their case. The Giants are for real, even if their wins are a little soft as well.
Giants, 24-10

Week 7 NFL Picks

Week 7 NFL Picks

Here's a look at a few of the weekend games. I'm not going to get into the obvious games, since there's no use wasting space on why Baltimore will beat a 2-14 in the making Bills club.

Pats at Chargers:
Why do we think the Chargers aren't crappy? They play decent at home, awful on the road, and haven't beaten anyone worth a damn. And that was when they were healthy. And now come the suddenly rejuvenated Pats coming off two solid wins over Miami and Baltimore. The pass defense for New England is still a work in progress, but the front 7 has gotten pretty solid in a hurry. Jermaine Cunningham is a baller. The difference is that Brady and the Pats offense is going to overwhelm San Diego's defense. And San Diego's special teams will hurt them, just like they have every game so far.
Pats, 34-20.

Bengals v. Falcons:
Part of me thinks the Falcons are kind of shitty. They just aren't physical enough to win on a consistent basis, especially with teams who can bang on them with a decent offensive balance. Cincinnati might just have enough to pull it out, especially if they run Benson about 28 times. Nobody's really giving them a chance, and I while I see picking the Falcons, I can't figure out why EVERYBODY'S picking Atlanta. Here's the other thing: Cincy should be able to play single coverage on the Atlanta WRs with their corners, and load up with extra guys in the box. This should be a pretty low-scoring, close, and pretty ugly affair.
Bengals, 16-13.

Redskins v. Bears:
The question, as it is every week, is whether the Bears O-Line can keep Cutler alive long enough to score a few points. The Chicago D is good, not great. That being said, McNabb is so damn inaccurate he's going to struggle in the large number of third and longs Chicago's going to force. It's probably close, but Chicago wins it at home. In DC, the Redskins probably win it.
Bears, 17-13.

Eagles v. Titans:
I really love this matchup. Good teams. But everybody's banged up. The problem is that Desean Jackson's gone, their LT Peters is gone, and Tennesee's D-Line's going to work them over hard up front. Without Jackson, the Eagles are going to struggle to move the ball all day long. On the other side, the Titans offense has Chris Johnson and not much else. Vince Young is out, but I suspect that against a team like Philly he's more a liability than Kerry Collins because the Eagles will bait him into bad throws all day. The fact that Philly's only impressive win was at home against a Falcon team that looks like a fringe playoff team gives me pause.
Titans, 20-16.

A Sunday of Fresh Starts

This Sunday saw two remarkable rebirths, one all together new and the other a long overdue return to a better place. Don Draper, he of the lost and found mojo, took the only road offering a clean break from the last few years in making it official with his Canadian flame. And, back in Foxboro, the newest Patriot Deion Branch made the long overdue return to Brady's side running 15 yard crossing patterns in the guttiest win the Pats have had in years. Did they find the entire solution to everything that's happened? Probably not. But it's clear each jumped at the only chance they had to make it back.

The Mad Men season finale left the lady and I searching for why Don inexplicably signed on to marry the Secretary du jour, Megan. For chrissakes Don what the hell are you thinking? What about the Doc? Wait--is this actually a dream sequence? No? Oh shit. Don's going to marry that goddamn secretary with the janky teeth (Side note: If you're still hot with janky teeth, you're really, really hot.) This can't work.

But wait.

Why the hell not? If he ends up running with the Doc, he's literally going to spend the next 20 years on the therapist's couch trying to come to terms with a past from which it's probably best to just run. And she knows all the things that are just going to linger like cigarette stains on a mod couch. Maybe it's the mature, healthy approach to handling his issues, but taking these things head on just isn't the way Draper rolls. Hey, he's not perfect.

With Megan, at least there was a chance to get away from the last few years. Maybe she'll turn out to be a social-climbing snake or a closet sociopath like Betty. But she's the only real option to just kick things off completely free of prior restraints. Faye wanted to conquer Don's issues, but Megan just doesn't care. Who's right? Who knows. In the end it doesn't matter. The one person who needed to resolve the issues was never going to, so why keep beating the dead horse.

In New England, the return of Deion Branch marked the end of an unfortunate odyssey of 4 lost years and probably 2 sacrificed titles. I remember when Branch started holding out and the whole situatuon became bizarrely hostile out of nowhere. New England loved Branch, and Branch loved New England. He was a team-first guy, a worker, and didn't need a lot of publicity. But at the same time, what made the relationship so perfect--the team-oriented pay structure the Pats have long observed--ultimately limited the adoration he could receive. He forced demands the team wasn't going to meet, and in the end was sent to a Seattle club with a system that just didn't fit. Seattle wanted their star receiver, and paid for one, but Branch just wasn't that guy. And deep down, he must have known.

Without taking the analogy too far, Branch's Seattle downfall aligns perfectly with the train wreck period we saw last year for Don. Like Branch, Don had his chance to be his own man. Both were free of what had seemingly been perfect situations gone awry. (It's important here to differentiate Betty in reality as opposed to an idealized version Don thought he had early on: gorgeous, non-threatening, and adoring. When things went to hell, she started hitting .333.) And both certainly had some decent moments sewing the oats and getting the prestige they sought. Sure Don won a Clio and had some good moments in cabs, and Branch made some serious money with a sporadically good team.

At the end of it all, though, where were they? Draper's mojo was so far gone he'd become a connoisseur of the NYC hooker circuit, either getting a package deal with Lane or getting slapped on his own. Branch was an unwanted part of what became a bottom-dweller who didn't care about his chemistry with Brady in 2003.

The ability of each to figure out where they went wrong--Draper straying too far from a safe and adoring female and Branch leaving a team where he could play his style and maximize his talents--was what saved them. We always have seen Don as the great womanizer, but it only really worked in the context of his own stability at home. Branch's brilliance on certain routes masked the fact that he was small and didn't run long patterns. As it turned out, each had a chance at the life raft on the same day, and grabbed it as fast as possible. Good thing, because it may have been the last chance for both.

The unfortunate part of all this, as that poor bastard Henry barked the other night, is that life doesn't just start over when you want. Draper's older and divorced, the kids are older and moving to Rye, and the firm with his name on the door is damn near going under. Branch is 31, with too many miles on the tires, and a team that has declined since the halcyon days of 2004 and 2005. But it offers the chance to move on to a better place, and that simply couldn't have happened until now.

There's no way to know how things will play out for either of them, although the earliest signs are decent. Branch looked great against the Ravens and we all felt a lot better about things seeing Megan's calm handling of the spilled milkshake. Even if things don't pan out, though, each of the new starts offered the only chance at a better future for the two. At very least, now we can root for them.

2010 NFL Forecast

Thursday marked the start of the NFL Season, so it seems time to actually make the 2010 NFL Forecast, this time from 32 to one. I actually had written some bits on all the teams, but it didn't save correctly and I was too damn angry to write anymore. But here's the rankings on things to start, and some quick notes.

Quick Points:

• I really like Green Bay, Baltimore, and Dallas. They seem like the three with the highest upside.
  
• I don't understand the fixation with Miami. They're decent, but not great and have a schedule that will leave them at 7-9. People get hung up about Marshall, but was anyone actually nervous about the Bronco passing game last year?
  
• The Jets aren't the Super Bowl contenders they made themselves out to be.
• If the Pats hadn't taken the personnel hits they have so far (Mankins, Bodden, Ty Warren), I'd put have put them in the top 4. But losing 3 of your top 10 players before week 10 is tough to overcome. As it is, they probably win the division but it's hard to see them making it too far in the postseason because of the young defense. Huge year for Brady and Moss.
  
• I'm saying Aaron Rodgers for MVP. He could throw for 35 TDs for a team that goes 11 or 12 wins.
  
• Seattle and Buffalo are going to be effing terrible. But at least next year's draft has solid QBs, which both need desperately.
  
• Not overly impressed with New Orleans or Minnesota the other night. New Orleans should have won that game by touchdowns, considering it was a home game against a heavily undermanned Minnesota club. They need to be a little more crisp on offense.
  
• Minny needs some wideouts to step up. They can't rely on Shiancoe to make all the plays in the passing game. People rip on Favre for being old and kind of a hassle, but the two throws he made over the middle to Shiancoe are ones only about 10 guys in the league can make.
  
• I like Cincy and Pittsburgh more than most. Cincinnati could be a top 8 team if things work out well. Pittsburgh, if they can stay healthy and in contention while Roethlisberger's out, isn't substantially different from the Super Bowl team of 2 years ago. They'll be tough if in contention in December. Brutal division, counting those two and Baltimore.
  
• I'm not as sold on the NFC East being as brutal as people make it out to be. Philly and the Giants have substantial flaws, and the Dallas could be due for a run of injuries. They'll all beat the hell out of each other.
  

32) Seattle

31) Buffalo

30)Tampa Bay

29) St. Louis

28) Cleveland

27) Denver

26) Chicago

25) Oakland

24) Arizona

23) Detroit

22) Jacksonville

21) Miami

20) Kansas City

19) Washington

18) Carolina

17) NY Giants

16) Philadelphia

15) Atlanta

14) San Diego

13) Tennessee

12) San Francisco

11) Pittsburgh

10) Houston

9) Minnesota

8) NY Jets

7) Cincinnati

6) New England

5) New Orleans

4) Indianapolis

3) Dallas

2) Baltimore

1) Green Bay

Preseason Football and Preseason Blogging

Time to get back into blogging training camp! Some quick notes from the last couple of games, nationally aired.

Pats vs. Falcons

• If you're the Pats, you've got to love the way the offensive skill players are looking right now. They look like they're a solid 4 deep for wideouts plus the TEs. Moss looks fast and like he's going to get after it. Good sign for August. It's easy to forget Moss was playing with a pretty messed up shoulder for most of last season.
  
• It's remarkable that Welker is already back from a complete knee blow-out about 7 months ago. He looks to be pretty well back in form, so he'll probably be ready to roll by Week 1. Having him back is nice, although they were realistically in a much better position to compensate for him missing time than they were last year in the Baltimore playoff game. Now they've got Tate and a more prepared Edelman, so they look much deeper.
  
• The rookies and second year players really seem to be ready to play in a hurry. Pat Chung looks like he's really going to be a ball player at safety after not playing much as a rookie. He's a hitter but doesn't have to play out of control (like McGowan always did). Vollmer similarly looks like he's going to make a big leap. He's better on the run than the pass, but he has the feet to improve on that. He was cleaning house on the right side the other night against a pretty good line.
  
• The rookie tight ends really look great for NE. Hernandez is going to be a playmaker for them and can create some matchup problems over the middle. I like Gronkowski overall, even though he's more of a traditional big TE. Hernandez only really blocks downfield, which is good, but not on 4th and 1. Gronkowski can move some peeps.
  
• The problem for the Pats, like we already basically knew, is going to be in the defensive front 7. With Warren out and Seymour never really replaced, it's going to be a band-aid situation all year long. Brace looked decent, but he's got a long way to go. Same thing for the pass rush. It's a little up in the air until Burgess gets more in the loop and Cunningham gets back on the field. They can compensate against the run with the MLBs (Spikes especially--that dude is a thumper) but they lose a little coverage range with those two.
  
• Count me in for the McCourty fan club. He looked tough out there and seems ready to rush in against the run. He's already in the top 3 for the corners and is going to get a lot of time with Bodden and Butler.
• I'm not sure how much I like the Falcons. This looks like an 8-8 team to me. It just does. They seem to be pretty good in a few spots, but not great at anything.
  
• That defense is just not physical at all. They're clearly built to beat the Saints (fine), but I don't see how they're going to match up with anyone trying to run the ball.
  
• Roddy White is solid, but the rest of the receivers are middle of the road guys on their best day. I'm not sold on Turner as being more than a grinder type. He'll get 100 yards, but it'll take 25 carries and he isn't much of a receiver.
  

Eagles vs. Bengals

• Really a pretty lackluster showing for the Eagles.
  
• The Eagles interior O-Line seems to be comprised of guys who shouldn't be in the league. They got worked over pretty well last night, and I don't see how this is going to improve. You can scheme help to the ends (TEs, RBs on fakes, etc.), but if you've got constant penetration in the A-gap because your center and guards shouldn't be playing on Sundays, it's damn near impossible to sustain success. Keep in mind that for all the trouble Philly had blocking, Cincy's two starting DEs didn't even play. Yikes.
  
• I like Philly's skill players, but they're not an overwhelming bunch. Kolb is a solid thrower but doesn't wow me right now. And I'm just not sure that any of the receivers other than DeSean Jackson are really better than average players right now. Vick looked pretty erratic, but they don't need him to throw in real games, so it's not a big concern.
  
• Can the Bengals really believe that Andre Smith is ever going to be a legit NFL tackle? That guy is terrrrrrible right now, and looks to be about 30 pounds overweight. He looks a legit 375. We're about a season from him getting cut next September.
  
• Overall I like the Bengals more than I expected (other than the helmets--I've always love the helmets. Those things are the effing jam.) They can run the ball, they've improved their talent level at the WR and TE position, and the defense still seems solid. TO looked better than I remembered from any point last year, although playing with that crappy Buffalo team will pretty much stifle any chance to make plays (See: Evans, Lee).
  
• The defense still should remain tough for the Bengals. The corners are both ball players, so they can overcompensate against the run. Good unit. They'll really be helped having Odom back in there after his injury last year.
  

So That's Why We Had to Sell All the Library Books on EBay...

Just to the Southeast of Downtown LA there's a fairly small city making a lot of headlines lately. The City of Bell, CA, with a working-class immigrant-heavy population of about 40,000 suddenly popped up on the radar last week when it surfaced that they happened to have the highest paid city officials in the country. Turns out that through a series of shady deals, the City ended up paying its City Manager nearly $800,000 annually in salary, his second in command about $375,000, and the Police Chief $450,000. Keep in mind that even in the largest cities in the country, the people with those jobs make at most half that amount. And then we need to consider the city council, all of whom were making $100K for their part time gigs sitting on irrelevant commissions. Yikes.

Like most people, my initial thought was, "how the hell do I get a job there?" Second,of course, was the question of how this possibly could have happened. We only have to look back a few years to see where the system went off the rails. In 2005, the State legislature passed a new law that limited the amount city officials could be paid. Of course this only came on the heels (and because of) a similar scandal in another city called South Gate, which happens to border Bell on the southwest side (of course it does...).

So if you're a scumbag city official and want to avoid all the hassle of state caps, what do you do? You bring a special election that no one knows anything about and turn Bell into a "Charter City." Basically, this is just a mechanism to allow cities to skirt some state control. It sounds good in theory, but then this shit happens and no one likes it anymore. The special election took place after the State passed the pay cap law, but no one made the connection. Only about 400 people of the 40,000 citizens voted (most by absentee), and no one really thought about it again.

Until now.

Problem at this point is that it's tough to undo all that's happened. The money's gone, first and foremost. The whole "drag them out in the street and shoot them" (aka "Option Eastwood") probably is off the list too. They may try to shake down the city council and officials and force retirements, but hell, even if they force them out they're still eligible for sweet pensions (LA Times reported that the manager would be on a $600K annual pension). It'll be hard to show pure fraud or other illegal conduct because most of what they were doing would have been technically legal, albeit offensive to any moral standard. There probably isn't any kind of smoking gun recording of kickbacks. So they're probably just stuck holding the bag, trying to learn for the next time.

I suppose the moral of the story is to make sure we all know who's writing the checks in these local governments, since this isn't just big city stuff. Hell, the town manager in my town growing up did some time for embezzling funds. And second, the song and dance about local control and getting rid of all those oppressive state rules isn't all its cracked up to be. One way or another, everybody's got a hustle. The trick is figuring it out before it's too late.