Friday, December 11, 2009

NFL Thoughts for 12/13

Some thoughts on a handful of the NFL Games this weekend:

Pats vs. Panthers:
I have a hard time seeing this being close. The Pats have played extremely well at home, especially in cold weather, and now they get a struggling Panthers team playing with a young QB. Panthers will be able to run the ball somewhat, but they are not going to be able to keep the game close.
The Equation: Cold Foxborough + Mediocre QB+ Shaky Panther Defense = 37-16 Pats win.

Packers v. Bears:
The big problem for the Bears is that they're secretly pretty terrible. (1)They don't play defense; (2) their OL is awful; and (3) their QB has a tendency to throw the ball to the wrong jerseys. Granted, 3 is largely a product of problems 1 and 2, but it still counts as a pick. Green Bay will be comfortable enough playing in cold weather and they'll generate a couple of critical turnovers.
Equation: Bad Bear Defense + Turnover Prone GB Defense + No Bear Running Game = 24-13, GB.

Jets v. Buccaneers:
If the Sanchise (or is it Sanchize?) was playing, I'd expect a blowout. As it is, the Jets defense should be able to control the game. The Bucs, as has been clear all year, are junk. Look for a Jets defensive TD, as these are the games where Rex Ryan can get his guys to look good.
Equation: Unprepared Bucs QB + Attacking Defense + Just enough Jets Running= 24-13, Jets.

Colts v. Broncos:
Broncos are going to look better than most people think. They have a fairly balanced offense and can run the ball well. Clady can do a solid job on Freeney, which is a huge help. Dumerville is going to have a big day on the turf, because the Indy OL isn't that good. But clearly, Manning is extremely tough to handle now, and Indy will get their points. Look for big games from Marshall and Moreno. I'm thinking Moreno gets 18 carries for 110 yards and a TD or 2.
Equation: Well-Suited Bronco D + Manning Doing His thing + Bronco Running Game = 30-27 Denver upset win.

Bengals v. Vikings:
I don't like this matchup for the Bengals one bit. They're a team reliant on running, and the Vikes stop the run well. The other problem is that the Bengals only get about 17-20 points per game, and I think the Vikes are going to top that every time in the Dome. Game is probably close for the first half, and the Vikes pull away late.
Equation: Tough Minn Run Defense + Peterson's Consistent Running + Cincy's Lack of Big Plays = Minnesota, 24-16.

Eagles v. Giants:
This is going to be an ugly, ugly game. It's going to be cold and rainy, so plan on both teams struggling to pass and the defenses playing 8 in the box. Manning can't throw in bad weather, and the Eagles can't keep up their pass-heavy ratio. The game's going to turn on a couple of fluky big plays, like a 55-yard screen pass with 3 missed tackles that goes for a TD. Good for the Eagles, since they can get the ball to guys like Jackson, Vick, and McCoy.
Equation: Bad Weather + Run Heavy Defenses + Slightly More Playmakers =Eagles, 20-13

1 comment:

  1. Props on the picks, homie. You're Broncos upset didn't work out, but it was a well-reasoned underdog pick. And your spreads were freakishly close on the other picks. All in all, I'd say you're at least a solid Keith Olbermann. I'd book your bets.